A joint report by the World Meteorological Organization and UK Met Office, issued May 28, forecasts annual global mean near-surface temperatures between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average through 2030. The report assigns a 75% probability that the 2026-2030 five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C and an 86% probability that at least one year in the period will surpass 2024 levels. It distinguishes single-year exceedances from the Paris Agreement's 20-year averaging metric and notes the prior El Niño's contribution to recent records.